AA vs 22: Preflop Equity & Odds
| Hand | Win | Tie | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA (Pocket Aces) | 81.9% | 0.5% | 82.2% |
| 22 (Pocket Deuces) | 17.5% | 0.5% | 17.8% |
How AA vs 22 unfolds by street
Pocket Aces (AA) is still ahead on 89% of flops against 22, and the lead survives to the turn on 86%. 22 takes the lead on the other 11% of flops, almost always by flopping a set. These figures come from full board enumeration, not a simulation.
| Street | AA still ahead | 22 flipped the lead |
|---|---|---|
| Flop | 89% | 11% |
| Turn | 86% | 14% |
AA vs 22 is two made hands colliding before the flop, and the higher pair owns it: AA wins 81.9%, 22 wins 17.5%, and 0.5% of boards chop — 4.7-to-1. With nothing but the case pair to chase, 22 is set-mining all-in: it wins about 1 in 6, correct to stack off preflop but a hand that hates a clean runout.
At a final table the raw 82.2% / 17.8% split is only half the story — ICM bends it. As the 17.8% underdog, 22 pays an extra survival premium, so the chip-EV "close enough" call can be a clear ICM fold. The pure equity sets the floor; the payout ladder sets the real price.
As the bigger pair, AA, your whole job is to get the money in before a scare card — there's no fold here and slow-playing only lets 22 realize its set equity for free. As the smaller pair, the discipline is recognizing when stacks are deep enough that calling off 17.5% equity is a leak, even though folding pre feels impossible.
AA vs 22 FAQ
Who wins AA vs 22 preflop?
AA (Pocket Aces) is the favorite, winning 81.9% of all runouts, while 22 (Pocket Deuces) wins 17.5%. The remaining 0.5% are split pots. Counting splits as half, AA's preflop equity is 82.2%.
How often does 22 beat AA?
22 wins 17.5% of the time all-in preflop against AA — roughly 1 in 6 — so it needs good pot odds or fold equity to get the money in profitably.
Can you fold the smaller pair in AA vs 22?
Almost never preflop all-in — but the 17.5% the smaller pair wins (about 1 in 6) means that when stacks are very deep and the action screams a bigger pair, laying it down is a real, if rare, fold. Set-mining the lower pair works only with the implied odds to win a full stack when you spike.
Does AA hold up against 22 after the flop?
AA is still ahead on 89% of flops and stays ahead through the turn on 86% of boards; 22 takes the lead on the other 11% of flops. These are exact figures from full board enumeration.
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