Lesson overview
Satellite Strategy
Optimize qualification when every seat pays the same
Read this introduction, then sign in to continue the full lesson and exercises.
Inside the full lesson
If first and fifth both win the same seat, what is doubling your stack worth?
In the full lesson, you work through this scenario with interactive examples.
Six players remain for five equal seats. Compare qualification chances before accepting a gamble that wins chips but risks a seat.
What you’ll learn
- Translate equal-seat payouts into qualification equity
- Compare calls using explicit outcome probabilities
- Recognize when premium folds are justified and when survival becomes passivity
From the full lesson
Read what qualification actually pays
Referenced activities and other examples are available in the full lesson after sign-in.
This lesson assumes identical seats for the final qualifiers. First place and the last qualifying place receive the same prize. Target-stack satellites, unequal packages and partial cash prizes need their own model. With equal seats, compare seat value × qualification probability. Chips matter through that probability; doubling the stack does not double the prize.
From the full lesson
Price both branches of the all-in
Referenced activities and other examples are available in the full lesson after sign-in.
In the supplied comfortable-stack model, folding qualifies 95%. Calling wins the hand 80% of the time, then qualifies 99%: 79.2% overall, with no qualification after losing. That makes folding better despite a strong hand. These are supplied probabilities, not estimates inferred from six players and five seats; stack counts alone cannot prove this fold.
Continue the full lesson
Sign in for the full lesson, interactive exercises and saved progress. Your learning path unlocks lessons as you progress.