Lesson overview
Mystery Bounties
Value the remaining pool, not the headline prize
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Inside the full lesson
A huge mystery prize remains. How much is your next eligible knockout actually worth?
In the full lesson, you work through this scenario with interactive examples.
Ten envelopes remain: one pays $1,000 and nine pay $100. Price the next eligible draw, then change the answer when a prize leaves.
What you’ll learn
- Check when bounty eligibility activates
- Calculate expected reward from the remaining eligible prize pool
- Handle uncertain information, variance, coverage, and payout risk
From the full lesson
Eligibility comes before the average
Referenced activities and other examples are available in the full lesson after sign-in.
Verify the activation stage and whether this elimination earns a draw. Before activation, this lesson’s immediate envelope reward is zero. After activation, you still must be entitled to the knockout. The operator rules illustrate staged rewards and remaining-prize tracking; your event’s published mechanism governs.
From the full lesson
Update the numerator and the denominator
Referenced activities and other examples are available in the full lesson after sign-in.
For equally likely remaining envelopes, expected reward is remaining value ÷ remaining envelopes. Here, removing the jackpot changes $190 to $100; removing a small prize instead changes $190 to $200. The target’s large stack does not enlarge an envelope in this model. Coverage changes eligibility, while the actual remaining pool changes the mean.
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