Lesson overview
Testing Solver Assumptions
Turn outputs into controlled experiments
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Inside the full lesson
The solver recommends a call. Which assumptions made that call profitable?
In the full lesson, you work through this scenario with interactive examples.
A river call flips from profitable to losing when five weighted bluffs disappear. Keep the price fixed and inspect the assumption that changed.
What you’ll learn
- Audit ranges, stacks, rake, payouts, and action trees
- Run controlled sensitivity and nodelock experiments
- Separate robust strategic principles from fragile frequencies and invented precision
From the full lesson
Save the game that produced the answer
Referenced activities and other examples are available in the full lesson after sign-in.
Record positions, effective stacks, pot, board, weighted ranges, fees, available bet sizes and payout model. A solver chooses among the actions in its tree; it cannot recommend an omitted size. A cash chip-EV solution cannot silently answer a satellite decision. Save the inputs alongside the result so the comparison is reproducible.
From the full lesson
Change one assumption at a time
Referenced activities and other examples are available in the full lesson after sign-in.
In the visual, the 30% price stays fixed. Reducing bluffs from 15 to 10 changes call EV from +8.33bb to −12.5bb. Trace those bluffs back through earlier actions and card removal. In actual study, first vary one range or tree input against the saved baseline; multiple simultaneous changes cannot identify one cause.
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