Lesson overview
Stake Transitions
When to move up, when to move down, and the psychology of variance at higher stakes
Read this introduction, then sign in to continue the full lesson and exercises.
Inside the full lesson
You have 50 buy-ins for the next stake. Should you move up?
In the full lesson, you work through this scenario with interactive examples.
Stake transitions are usually a money decision dressed up as a strategy decision. The bankroll math is necessary but not sufficient — psychology, sample size at the current stake, and the variance jump at the new stake all matter. This lesson is the checklist that prevents the "moved up too fast, moved down broken" cycle.
What you’ll learn
- The bankroll thresholds that actually predict survival
- Why moving down deserves the same discipline as moving up
- The psychology shift at higher stakes (variance feels different)
From the full lesson
The bankroll math (necessary, not sufficient)
Referenced activities and other examples are available in the full lesson after sign-in.
Standard cash-game move-up thresholds (100bb deep, online):
- 30 buy-ins for the new stake = minimum (high risk).
- 50 buy-ins for the new stake = recommended.
- 100 buy-ins for the new stake = conservative.
These numbers assume:
- Your win rate at the CURRENT stake is established (5k+ hands at the stake, not the format).
- Your standard deviation per 100 hands is roughly 80-100bb (typical for 100NL+ NLHE 6-max).
- You have a separate "life roll" so your bankroll isn't funding rent.
From the full lesson
Sample size — the hidden gate
Referenced activities and other examples are available in the full lesson after sign-in.
Win rate uncertainty at low sample sizes is enormous.
Confidence intervals for cash 6-max NLHE (assuming SD = 90bb/100):
- 1k hands: 95% CI on win rate is ±56 BB/100.
- 5k hands: 95% CI is ±25 BB/100.
- 10k hands: 95% CI is ±18 BB/100.
- 25k hands: 95% CI is ±11 BB/100.
- 100k hands: 95% CI is ±5.6 BB/100.
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