AK vs 99: Preflop Equity & Odds
| Hand | Win | Tie | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK (Ace-King) | 45.2% | 0.4% | 45.4% |
| 99 (Pocket Nines) | 54.4% | 0.4% | 54.6% |
Suited vs offsuit: AK
| Matchup | Win | Tie | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 47.2% | 0.4% | 47.4% |
| AKo | 44.5% | 0.4% | 44.7% |
How AK vs 99 unfolds by street
Pocket Nines (99) is still ahead on 67% of flops against AK, and the lead survives to the turn on 61%. AK takes the lead on the other 33% of flops. These figures come from full board enumeration, not a simulation.
| Street | 99 still ahead | AK flipped the lead |
|---|---|---|
| Flop | 67% | 33% |
| Turn | 61% | 39% |
When a pair meets two bigger cards you get a flip, and AK vs 99 is exactly that: 99 wins 54.4%, AK wins 45.2%, and 0.4% of boards chop. The overcards lean on six live outs — either Nine or Nine pairs to take the lead — which is why the unpaired side converts about 54.4%, the math behind every "I have to gamble" all-in in a tournament. It's a benchmark spot every serious player should know cold.
At a final table the raw 54.6% / 45.4% split is only half the story — ICM bends it. As the 45.4% underdog, AK pays an extra survival premium, so the chip-EV "close enough" call can be a clear ICM fold. The pure equity sets the floor; the payout ladder sets the real price.
In practice, AK vs 99 rewards aggression from the favorite and caution from the dog: 99 wants to realize its 54.4% edge by getting value and denying free cards, while AK should lean on fold equity and position rather than hoping to win the pot at showdown about 1 time in 2.
AK vs 99 FAQ
Who wins AK vs 99 preflop?
99 (Pocket Nines) is the favorite, winning 54.4% of all runouts, while AK (Ace-King) wins 45.2%. The remaining 0.4% are split pots. Counting splits as half, AK's preflop equity is 45.4%.
Does the AK vs 99 probability change all-in preflop?
No. Once both hands are all-in preflop the odds are set by the cards alone — position, stack size and who bet first change nothing. The only thing that moves the number is suits: AK's equity runs from 44.3% to 47.6% depending on suitedness and which suits the two hands share, which is why different sites quote slightly different figures. It does change once board cards are dealt (99 leads on 67% of flops) and in multiway pots, where every extra caller takes equity from both hands.
Is 99 vs AK a good spot to get all-in?
For 99, yes — a 54.6% favorite should happily commit, especially with fold equity. For AK at 45.4%, it depends on the price: enough to continue with initiative, but thin enough that stacking off out of position is usually a leak.
Does 99 hold up against AK after the flop?
99 is still ahead on 67% of flops and stays ahead through the turn on 61% of boards; AK takes the lead on the other 33% of flops. These are exact figures from full board enumeration.
Run any matchup in the free equity calculator · AA VS KK · KK VS AA · AA VS AK · AK VS AA · KK VS AK · AK VS KK
AK against a range
All-in against one known hand is the textbook case; at the table AK is usually up against a range. Exact equities, computed over every combo with card removal applied:
- AK vs calling station — 64.5% against 670 combos (50.5% of hands)
- AK vs BTN open — 64.0% against 586 combos (44.2% of hands)
- AK vs SB open — 64.0% against 534 combos (40.3% of hands)
- AK vs CO open — 61.7% against 366 combos (27.6% of hands)