Lesson overview
Overbets and Overbet Logic
Pot+ sizing isn't showmanship — it's leverage and capped ranges
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Inside the full lesson
Why do solvers bet 150% pot on some river spots when 75% would also fold most of villain's range?
In the full lesson, you work through this scenario with interactive examples.
Pot-sized bets are the safe-feeling default. Overbets feel reckless. But when villain's range is CAPPED — they have only medium hands, no nuts — overbets extract maximum value AND maximum fold equity. Knowing when to overbet is the difference between winning 100 BB and winning 250 BB on a single hand.
What you’ll learn
- The two conditions that justify overbets (nut advantage + capped villain)
- Why overbets work for value AND for bluffs (the polarized payoff)
- How to size overbets: 1.25x, 1.5x, 2x — and what changes between them
From the full lesson
The two conditions for overbetting
Referenced activities and other examples are available in the full lesson after sign-in.
Both must hold:
1. Nut advantage: YOUR range has the nut combos at this node. Villain's range does NOT.
- 3-bet pots where you're the 3-bettor: you have AA/KK/AK, villain doesn't (they 4-bet those).
- Monotone or wet boards in SRPs where one position holds the strong hands.
- River spots where villain check-called twice with bluff-catchers.
From the full lesson
The polarized payoff
Referenced activities and other examples are available in the full lesson after sign-in.
Overbets only work because the bluffs come along for the ride.
If you only overbet for value, observant villains call wider — your overbet means "nuts," they bluff-catch with 2nd nuts. EV crashes.
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