Poker Odds Chart: Essential Probabilities
Complete poker odds chart with preflop matchups, drawing odds, pot odds, and the Rule of 2 and 4. Printable reference with real examples.
TryBluff Team · 2026-02-09
There's a moment in every poker player's development where the game stops being about gut feelings and starts being about numbers. You stop thinking "I feel good about this call" and start thinking "I need 30% equity and I'm getting 3-to-1."
That shift is what separates break-even players from winners.
This guide gives you every poker odds chart you'll need — preflop matchups, drawing odds, pot odds, and the shortcuts to calculate them at the table. Bookmark this page. You'll come back to it.
Odds work is one piece of the bigger toolkit. Pair this chart with the complete poker strategy guide for ranges and frameworks, and the cash game strategy pillar for stake-specific bet-sizing.
Table of Contents
- Preflop Hand Matchup Odds
- Drawing Odds: Outs and Probabilities
- The Rule of 2 and 4
- Pot Odds Quick Reference
- Implied Odds Explained
- Common Preflop All-In Scenarios
- Starting Hand Win Rates
- Frequently Asked Questions
Preflop Hand Matchup Odds
These are the fundamental matchup categories you'll encounter before the flop. Memorize the approximate percentages and you'll instantly know where you stand.
The Big Four Matchup Types
| Matchup Type | Example | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overpair vs. Underpair | AA vs. KK | ~81% | ~19% |
| Pair vs. Two Overcards | QQ vs. AK | ~54% | ~46% |
| Pair vs. One Overcard | 99 vs. AJ | ~57% | ~43% |
| Dominated Hand | AK vs. AQ | ~74% | ~26% |
| Two Overcards vs. Two Undercards | AK vs. 87 | ~63% | ~37% |
| Pair vs. Undercards | JJ vs. 87 | ~81% | ~19% |
Key Takeaways
- Overpair vs. underpair is NOT a coinflip — it's 80/20. Stop calling all-ins with 99 against what's clearly AA.
- Pair vs. two overcards IS nearly a coinflip (~55/45). The "race" nickname is earned.
- Dominated hands are where the real money is lost. AQ vs. AK, KJ vs. KQ — these 75/25 spots add up over time.
Drawing Odds: Outs and Probabilities
After the flop, your decisions come down to counting outs (cards that improve your hand) and comparing them to pot odds.
The Complete Outs Chart
| Draw Type | Outs | Flop → Turn | Turn → River | Flop → River |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gutshot straight draw | 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| Two overcards | 6 | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| Open-ended straight draw (OESD) | 8 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| Flush draw | 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| Flush draw + gutshot | 12 | 25.5% | 26.1% | 45.0% |
| Flush draw + OESD | 15 | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% |
| Flush draw + OESD + pair | 18+ | 38.3% | 39.1% | 62.4% |
How to Read This Chart
- Flop → Turn: Your chance of hitting on the very next card (one card to come)
- Turn → River: Your chance of hitting on the river (one card to come)
- Flop → River: Your chance of hitting at least once with two cards to come
Critical distinction: When facing a bet on the flop, use the Flop → Turn column (one card), not the Flop → River column (two cards). You only get to see two cards if you're all-in or getting a free card on the turn.
This is one of the most common mistakes in poker math. A flush draw is 35% to hit with two cards to come, but only 19% to hit on the next card. If you're calling a bet, you're paying to see ONE card.
The Rule of 2 and 4
Don't want to memorize the chart? Use this shortcut:
On the Flop (two cards to come)
Outs × 4 = Approximate equity %
- 9 outs (flush draw) × 4 = 36% (actual: 35%)
- 8 outs (OESD) × 4 = 32% (actual: 31.5%)
- 4 outs (gutshot) × 4 = 16% (actual: 16.5%)
On the Turn (one card to come)
Outs × 2 = Approximate equity %
- 9 outs × 2 = 18% (actual: 19.6%)
- 8 outs × 2 = 16% (actual: 17.4%)
- 4 outs × 2 = 8% (actual: 8.7%)
Accuracy note: The Rule of 4 slightly overestimates with high out counts (15+ outs). For these monster draws, use outs × 3.5 instead.
When to Use ×4 vs. ×2
- Use ×4 when you're all-in on the flop (seeing both turn and river for free)
- Use ×2 when facing a bet on the flop or turn (paying to see one card at a time)
Most of the time at the table, you should be using ×2. The ×4 shortcut is mainly for all-in decisions.
Pot Odds Quick Reference
Pot odds tell you the price you're being offered to call. Compare them to your equity to decide.
Pot Odds by Bet Size
| Villain's Bet Size | You Need to Call | Pot Odds | Equity Needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25% pot | 25% pot | 5:1 | 16.7% |
| 33% pot | 33% pot | 4:1 | 20.0% |
| 50% pot | 50% pot | 3:1 | 25.0% |
| 67% pot | 67% pot | 2.5:1 | 28.6% |
| 75% pot | 75% pot | 2.3:1 | 30.0% |
| 100% pot (pot-size) | 100% pot | 2:1 | 33.3% |
| 150% pot | 150% pot | 1.7:1 | 37.5% |
| 200% pot (2x pot) | 200% pot | 1.5:1 | 40.0% |
How to Use This
- Figure out villain's bet as a percentage of the pot
- Find the "Equity Needed" column
- Count your outs and use Rule of 2 (or 4)
- If your equity > equity needed → call. If less → fold.
Quick Example
Pot is $100. Villain bets $75 (75% pot). You have a flush draw (9 outs).
- Equity needed: 30%
- Your equity on the turn: 9 × 2 = 18%
- Fold. You don't have the right price to call.
But wait — what if villain has a huge stack behind and you'll win a lot more if you hit?
That's where implied odds come in.
Implied Odds Explained
Pot odds tell you the current price. Implied odds factor in future bets you'll win when you complete your draw.
The Formula
Implied odds = (Pot + Villain's bet + Expected future winnings) / Call amount
When Implied Odds Matter
Implied odds are significant when:
- Stacks are deep (lots of money behind to win)
- Your draw is hidden (villain won't see it coming)
- Villain is likely to pay off (they have a strong hand they won't fold)
When Implied Odds DON'T Help
- Short stacks — not enough behind to make up the difference
- Obvious draws — if the flush card hits and villain checks/folds, you win nothing extra
- Non-nut draws — if you hit your straight but villain has a flush, you lose MORE money
Practical Example
Pot: $100. Villain bets $75 on the flop. You have 9♠ 8♠ on a K♠ 7♠ 3♥ board (flush draw).
- Direct pot odds: need 30% equity
- Your equity: ~19% (one card to come)
- Gap: You're short by ~11%
But villain has $500 behind. If you hit the flush, you expect to win at least another $150-200 on the turn and river.
Effective pot = $100 + $75 + $150 (expected future winnings) = $325 Call amount = $75 Implied odds = $325 / $75 = 4.3:1 → need ~19% equity
Now the call is profitable. The implied odds make up the difference.
Common Preflop All-In Scenarios
Here are the most frequent all-in situations and their exact odds. These come up constantly in tournaments and short-stacked play. For example, see the exact AA vs KK odds — precomputed by full board enumeration, not simulation.
Premium vs. Premium
| Matchup | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| AA vs. KK | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| AA vs. QQ | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| AA vs. AKs | 87.2% | 12.8% |
| KK vs. QQ | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| KK vs. AKo | 69.2% | 30.8% |
Classic Races (Pair vs. Overcards)
| Matchup | Pair | Overcards |
|---|---|---|
| JJ vs. AKs | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| QQ vs. AKo | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| TT vs. AQs | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 88 vs. AKs | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| 55 vs. AKo | 55.2% | 44.8% |
Dominated Hands
| Matchup | Dominator | Dominated |
|---|---|---|
| AKo vs. AQo | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| AKo vs. AJo | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| KQo vs. KJo | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| AKs vs. AQs | 70.4% | 29.6% |
Underpair vs. Overcards
| Matchup | Pair | Overcards |
|---|---|---|
| 22 vs. AKo | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 77 vs. AKo | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 66 vs. JTs | 53.5% | 46.5% |
The takeaway: Almost every preflop all-in is either an 80/20 (domination) or a 55/45 (race). True coinflips in poker are rare.
Starting Hand Win Rates
How often does each premium hand win in a heads-up all-in against a random hand?
Top 20 Starting Hands vs. Random Hand
| Rank | Hand | Win % vs. Random |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | AA | 85.3% |
| 2 | KK | 82.4% |
| 3 | 79.9% | |
| 4 | JJ | 77.5% |
| 5 | TT | 75.0% |
| 6 | 99 | 72.1% |
| 7 | 88 | 69.1% |
| 8 | AKs | 67.0% |
| 9 | 77 | 66.2% |
| 10 | AQs | 66.1% |
| 11 | AKo | 65.3% |
| 12 | AJs | 65.4% |
| 13 | 66 | 63.3% |
| 14 | ATs | 64.7% |
| 15 | AQo | 64.4% |
| 16 | KQs | 63.4% |
| 17 | 55 | 60.3% |
| 18 | AJo | 63.6% |
| 19 | KJs | 62.6% |
| 20 | KQo | 61.4% |
Key insight: Even pocket Aces only win 85% against a random hand. Over a long session, AA WILL lose sometimes. Don't tilt when it happens.
Another insight: AKs (suited) is stronger than small pairs (77, 66, 55) against a random hand because it makes strong top-pair and flush hands more often.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I calculate poker odds at the table?
Use the Rule of 2 and 4. Count your outs (cards that improve your hand), then multiply by 2 (one card to come) or 4 (two cards to come). For example, a flush draw has 9 outs — that's 18% on the turn or 36% from flop to river. Compare this to the pot odds being offered to decide.
What are the odds of getting pocket Aces?
Exactly 1 in 221 hands (0.45%). In a live game dealing roughly 30 hands per hour, you'll get Aces about once every 7-8 hours on average.
What are the odds of flopping a set with a pocket pair?
About 11.8% (roughly 1 in 8.5 flops). This is why set mining — calling a raise with a small pair hoping to flop three of a kind — needs at least 8-to-1 implied odds to be profitable.
Is AK really a coinflip against pocket pairs?
Against low and medium pairs, yes — it's roughly 45-47% to win. Against AA or KK specifically, AK is heavily dominated (~7% and ~30% respectively). The "coinflip" label only applies against pairs QQ and below.
What are the odds of hitting a gutshot straight draw?
A gutshot has 4 outs, giving you about 8.5% on the next card and 16.5% with two cards to come. You need 11-to-1 pot odds to call profitably with one card to come, or 5-to-1 if you're all-in on the flop.
How do pot odds relate to equity?
They're two sides of the same decision. Equity is your chance of winning. Pot odds are the price you pay. If your equity is greater than the pot odds percentage, the call is profitable in the long run. For example: if you need to call $50 into a $150 pot, your pot odds are 25%. If your equity is 30%, you call — you'll profit over time.
Put the Odds to Work
Knowing the odds is step one. Applying them under pressure at the table is step two.
Quick recap:
- Memorize the Big Four preflop matchup types (~80/20, ~55/45, ~75/25, ~63/37)
- Count outs and use the Rule of 2 and 4
- Compare your equity to pot odds before every call
- Factor in implied odds when stacks are deep
- Remember: poker is one big math problem disguised as a card game
Ready to practice? Use TryBluff's equity calculator to run any hand matchup and verify the numbers. It's free, works on mobile, and runs thousands of simulations in seconds.
Want to drill these spots until they're automatic? The GTO Trainer tests you on real solver-approved scenarios, including bet sizing decisions where pot odds matter most.
Related Reading:
- Poker Strategy: The Complete Guide — The master pillar covering ranges, position, ICM, and GTO
- Poker Cash Game Strategy: The Complete Guide — Stake-specific bet-sizing and 6-max ranges
- Poker Equity Calculator Guide — Deep dive into hand vs. hand and range calculations
- Poker Hand Rankings Guide — Make sure you know what beats what
- GTO Poker Strategy for Beginners — The optimal approach to every decision
What's the poker odds fact that surprised you most? For most people, it's learning that AK suited is only about 67% against a random hand. The math humbles everyone eventually. 💰♠️